Y2k Essays (1041 words) - Stock Market, Investment,

Y2k Y2K pessimists are approaching their moment of truth. In seven weeks the world will, or will not, run into more trouble than most people think. Investors will, or will not, suffer last-minute jitters as the millennium draws near. Yes, yes, I know?it's not yet the millennium, from a technical point of view. As a stern band of readers likes to remind me, only morons believe the millennium falls on Jan. 1. The 1,000-year span actually ends on the year's last day, Dec. 31, 2000. Well, that may be their millennium, but it's not mine. I'm partying now. A more interesting question than calendar dates is whether the stock and bond markets will be partying too. Has the Y2K selling already happened (as I believe) or will it erupt in the final days? If there's the usual year-end rally?and last Friday looked good?will we wake up with a hangover? When you read this, the Federal Reserve will probably have made its latest decision about interest rates (its open-market committee meets on Tuesday, Nov. 16). Either result?rates up or rates flat?should be good for stocks, says economist Irwin Kellner of Hofstra University in Hempstead, N.Y. Investors will feel more secure for the next few months. The markets don't expect the Fed to raise rates in December, on Y2K eve, or in early 2000, when business conditions might be distorted by the millennial bump. Rate hike: After that, investor concern about interest-rate increases may resume. The Fed wants the economy to slow, to ward off the inflation that could arise from tight labor markets and global growth. You're seeing some cooling already in housing and auto sales, but perhaps not enough. We're thinking one or two modest rate hikes, over six to nine months, says economist Allen Sinai, president of Primark Decision Economics in New York. Even so, hardly anyone mentions the R word. A recession could always arise from an unexpected shock, but none of the conventional signals are flashing red. By cooling things down, the rate hikes will preserve the expansion, Sinai says. It's still a great equity bull market. It just won't rise as much as it did in the past. Bond-fund managers have been shouting and waving their hands, trying to attract your eye. Last year's Russian crisis, plus the Y2K effect, drove money into U.S. Treasury securities, says Martin Barnes, managing editor of the Bank Credit Analyst in Montreal. Other types of bonds now carry relatively higher rates. That's a big opportunity, Barnes says. If you buy, you'll earn extra profits when the fixed-income markets get back to normal. High-yield bonds are very cheap, says Theresa Havell of Havell Capital Management in New York. Interest rates are in the 10 to 11 percent range. Havell thinks that total returns could reach 15 to 18 percent next year, as the markets adjust. And tax-free municipals? So cheap they're a giveaway, she says. Still, it's hard to interest people in bonds once they've sampled the thrill of AOL. Jeremy Siegel, of the Wharton School in Philadelphia, and high priest of growth stocks, sees no end to their dominance. A few have disappointed?Coca-Cola, Disney, Merck?but a few always do. AOL may be down 11 percent from its April peak, but it's up 93 percent for the year. Growth stocks generally boast high and rising earnings, and sell for high prices, relative to those earnings. Value stocks, by contrast, sell for low price-earnings ratios, and often are companies in trouble. In the 1970s and early 1980s, value stocks trounced growth. Then growth took over and never looked back. Go wrong: Growth investors go wrong, however, when they try to pick a small handful of winners, Siegel says. You might wind up with too much Coke and too little Lucent (or the opposite, when their relative market performance turns). He also counsels against stocks with P/Es over 75, which currently include Cisco Systems, Sun Microsystems, Yahoo and AOL. High P/E stocks that can't keep delivering staggering gains in earnings (or any earnings at all) will get beaten up. The best growth-stock strategy? Buy a well-diversified fund, Siegel says. One good candidate: the Vanguard Growth Stock Fund, which is the growth half of Standard & Poor's 500-stock index (the Value Stock Fund is the other half). So

How to Scan and Mark Latin Poetry

How to Scan and Mark Latin Poetry To learn to scan a line of Latin poetry, it helps to know the meter and to use a text that shows the macrons. Lets assume you have a text of the beginning of The Aeneid with macrons. Since it is an ancient epic, The Aeneid is in dactylic hexameters, which is a meter the AP exams typically expect you to know. Find the Long Syllables First, you mark all syllables that are long by nature. Syllables that are long by nature are those with diphthongs, ae, au, ei, eu, oe, and ui. Those syllables with macrons over the vowels are long by nature. For simplicity, a circumflex will be used for a macron here. (Macrons are usually long marks †¾ over the vowels, but you use the long mark †¾ over the syllables vowel to mark the syllable as long when you scan your lines.) Tip: For an AP exam, the help offered by the macron will probably not be available, so when you use a Latin dictionary to look up a word, make note of the long vowels. 3 Consecutive Vowels If there are 3 vowels in a row:and there is a macron over one of the vowels, it is not part of the diphthong; thus, dià ªÃƒ ®, which has two macrons, has no diphthongs. Dià ªÃƒ ® has 3 syllables: di, à ª, and à ®.and the second and third vowels form a diphthong, the preceding vowel is short. (This 1st vowel is also short if there are 2 vowels that do not form a diphthong.)Next, find and mark as long all the syllables that are long by position. Double Consonants Those syllables in which the vowel is followed by two consonants (one or both of which may be in the next syllable) are long by position.A syllable that ends in X or (sometimes) Z is long by position because X or (sometimes) Z counts as a double consonant. Extra Linguistic Information: The 2 consonant sounds are [k] and [s] for X and [d] and [z] for Z.However, ch, ph, and th do not count as double consonants. They are the equivalent of the Greek letters Chi, Phi, and Theta.For qu and sometimes gu, the u is really a glide [w] sound rather than a vowel, but it doesnt make the q or g into a double consonant.When the second consonant is an l or an r, the syllable may or may not be long by position. When the l or r is the first consonant, it counts towards the position. Extra Linguistic Information: The consonants [l] and [r] are called liquids and are more sonorant (closer to vowels) than stop consonants [p] [t] and [k]. Glides are even more sonorant.When a word ends in a vowel or a vowe l followed by an m and the first letter of the next word is a vowel or the letter h, the syllable ending in a vowel or an m elides with the next syllable, so you dont mark it separately. You may put a line through it.Extra Linguistic Information: The [h] counts as aspiration or rough breathing in Greek, rather than a consonant. Scan a Line of Latin Lets look at an actual line of Latin: Arma virumque canà ´, Trà ´iae quà ® prà ®mus ab à ´rà ®s Can you find the 7 syllables that are long by nature? There are 6 macrons and 1 diphthong. Mark them all as long. Here they are bolded; syllables are separated from each other: Ar-ma vi-rum-que ca- nà ´, Trà ´-iae quà ® prà ®-mus ab à ´-rà ®s Notice that in Trà ´iae there is a diphthong, a macron, and an i in between. More Information: This intervocalic i acts as a consonant (j), rather than a vowel. How Many Syllables Are Long by Position? There are only 2: Ar-maThe two consonants are r and m.vi-rum-quethe two consonants are m and q. Here is the line with all the long syllables noted: Ar-ma vi-rum-que ca-nà ´, Trà ´-iae quà ® prà ®-mus ab à ´-rà ®s Mark According to the Known Meter Since you already know this is an epic and in the meter called dactylic hexameter, you know you should have 6 feet (hexa-) of dactyls. Dactyl is a long syllable followed by two shorts, which is exactly what you have at the start of the line: Ar-ma vi-You may put short marks over the 2 short syllables. (If you arent bolding the long syllables, you should mark the shorts, perhaps with a Ï…, and mark the longs with a long mark †¾ over them: †¾Ãâ€¦Ãâ€¦.) This is the first foot. You should put a line (|) after it to mark the foots end.The next and all succeeding feet begin with a long syllable as well. It looks as though the second foot is as simple as the first:rum-que ca-The second foot is just like the first. No problem so far, but then look what comes next. Its all long syllables:nà ´, Trà ´-iae quà ® prà ®Have no fear. There is an easy solution here. One long syllable is the equivalent of 2 shorts. (Mind you, you cant use two shorts for the start of a dactyl.) Therefore, a dactyl can be long, short, short, or long, long and thats what weve got. The long, long syllable is called a spondee, so technically, you should say that a spondee can substitute for a dactyl.nà ´, Trà ´iae quà ® and then prà ® b ecomes the long syllable in a regular dactyl: prà ®-mus ab We just need one more syllable to make the 6 dactyls of a line of dactylic hexameter. What we have left is the same pattern we saw for the 3rd and 4th feet, two longs:à ´-rà ®sOne extra bonus is that it doesnt matter whether the final syllable is long or short. The final syllable is an anceps. You can mark the anceps with an x.Tip: This customary †¾ x final foot makes it possible to work backward from the last two syllables  if the passage is tricky. You have now scanned a line of dactylic hexameter: Ar-ma vi-|rum-que ca-|nà ´, Trà ´-|iae quà ® |prà ®-mus ab| à ´-rà ®s†¾Ãâ€¦Ãâ€¦ | †¾Ãâ€¦Ãâ€¦ | †¾ †¾ | †¾ †¾ |†¾Ãâ€¦Ãâ€¦ |†¾x Line With Elision The third line of the first book of The Aeneid offers examples of elision twice in succession. If you are speaking the lines, you dont pronounce the italicized elided parts. Here, the syllable with the ictus is marked with an acute accent and the long syllables are bolded, as above: là ­-to-ra | mà ºl- tum il-| le à ©t ter-| rà ­s jac-| t-tus et| l- to†¾Ãâ€¦Ãâ€¦ | †¾ †¾ | †¾ †¾ | †¾ †¾ |†¾Ãâ€¦Ãâ€¦ |†¾xSyllables Read: li-to-ra-mul-til-let-ter-ris-jac-ta-tus-et-al-to References: Guide to Scansion of Latin PoetryGildersleeves Latin Grammar